But the laws of gravity have taken effect, according to data from Altos. In June 2022, Florida inventory started to rise year over year, and its growth rate peaked at a shocking 150% in April 2023. Growth turned flat a year later but started rising again in 2024.
It’s no secret why inventory is increasing. Growth in homes for sale has correlated significantly with rising mortgage rates. When rates started to jump in October 2021, Florida inventory followed suit.
When the year-over-year rise in mortgage rates started to drop, Florida inventory did so as well a short time later. Now that growth in mortgage rates has stopped moving, so has the year-over-year rise in Florida inventory, but it’s settled in at a pace of about 30%.
Home prices have turned negative in response to inventory piling up, and it’s not just the Miami metro area where that’s happening. In Miami, the median home price has fallen year over year every week since May.
In Tampa and Orlando prices have fallen every week since June 2024. Jacksonville turned negative the following October, while North Port-Bradenton-Sarasota’s drop began in February 2023.
But rising inventory and falling prices has yet to entice prospective buyers. Currently, home sales in all five metropolitan areas are down year over year, and they’ve been falling for most of the period since mortgage rates started rising.
While one might expect home sales to rise when the price finally gets right, the global trade war initiated by President Donald Trump has injected a major wild card into housing markets across the country.
The stock market selloff has shown signs of pushing down the 10-year yield on Treasury bonds, and there’s a scenario where mortgage rates drop by enough to cancel out any inflation that comes with the trade war.
But the uncertainty alone will likely prompt many prospective buyers to take a wait-and-see approach to shopping. If inflation decimates household budgets without enough of a drop in mortgage rates, it could lead to even more depressed housing markets in Florida.
First Time Home Buyer FAQs - Via HousingWire.com
