Economists raise concerns about the accuracy of inflation data

The BLS isn’t able to track the price of everything, so it makes educated guesses to fill in gaps. Citing data from UBS, the Journal found that these less reliable estimates make up about 10% of the report in any given month.

During the first months of the pandemic, the numbers briefly hit 15%. But for the March 2025 CPI report, that number hit 15% then jumped to nearly 30% the following month. 

There’s no evidence to suggest that the data is being deliberately tampered with, but Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick floated the idea of changing the way gross domestic product is calculated to not account for changes in government spending, thus minimizing any drops in GDP related to federal budget cuts.

But The New York Times notes that concerns about the accuracy of government data predate Trump’s second term as president. It cited a report issued last year by the American Statistical Association, which warned about declines in reliable economic data.

If the accuracy of the monthly inflation report is compromised, it would make it harder to track the impacts of Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs. The global tariff regime he announced on April 2 sent stock markets, bond markets and the dollar into free fall, prompting him to pause most of them until July.

‘Members of the Trump administration have at various times denied that the tariffs will cause inflation, only to acknowledge later that it could. The CPI report for April showed inflation falling to 2.3%, the lowest annual increase since February 2021.

Staffing shortages that impact data collection would have implications across the real estate and mortgage industries. Housing professionals rely on data from BLS, the U.S. Census Bureau, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), among other sources.