Florida’s housing markets were as hot as any after the COVID-19 pandemic began, but now they’re among the coldest.
Stubbornly high mortgage rates, rapidly rising inventory and macroeconomic headwinds are impacting housing markets all over the country, but Florida is notable for both how far it’s fallen and how much it’s slumping.
Here are four charts using Altos data that explain Florida’s pandemic boom and current malaise.
Inventory spikes give buyers the upper hand
Housing markets have suffered from low inventory dating back to the financial crisis of the late 2000s, but that’s been changing since mortgage rates began to rise in the summer of 2022.
Florida hasn’t been any different. While the current year-over-year inventory gains in Florida’s major metropolitan areas aren’t too much higher than the current national rate of 31%, that only recently became the case.
At the beginning of November, the year-over-year gain in U.S. inventory was about 30%, much lower than that of Miami (+46%), Tampa (+68%), Orlando (+66%) and Jacksonville (+49%).
Additional inventory is not leading to more sales
It’s hard to overstate just how fast homes were selling in Florida’s markets during the pandemic, but since 2022, new pending home sales have been consistently negative year over year.
At the end of 2022 and 2023, the year-over-year numbers were dramatically lower, partly because they were coming off unsustainable highs. Despite that, pending sales in Florida metros have only briefly turned positive.
Jacksonville started 2025 with a slight bump up, but it was short-lived and it’s now down by 8.3%.
It’s also notable how volatile sales have been in some Florida markets. Since the fall of 2023, year-over-year new pending sales have ranged from -23.5% to +11.3%. Miami has been less volatile but is presently down 3.9%.
Prices are sinking, even in Miami
The proverbial “flight to the suburbs” in 2020 and 2021 turned a number of wealthy New Yorkers into Floridians. The influx of money led to rapid home-price appreciation in Florida — and especially in Miami. But the market malaise has started to reverse this trend.
Tampa’s and Jacksonville’s pending home sale price flirted with negative year-over-year price growth since September 2024, and it’s been consistently down since the start of 2025. Even Miami experienced negative growth every week in April.
The four biggest Florida metro markets are, on average, seeing homes sell for less than the list price. Of the nine U.S. markets with the largest differences between sale and list prices, four are in Florida and the top three are in Texas (San Antonio, Houston and Dallas).
Macroeconomic headwinds could make things worse
Housing market forecasts for 2025 predicted a more active market, partially driven by the expectation of lower mortgage rates and easing inflation. Neither of these things have happened.
President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy and tariffs pushed rates back up near 7%, and there’s a broad expectation that inflation will rise again due to market volatility.
This has led to a shocking 32% drop in consumer confidence since the start of the year. A Redfin survey found that as a result of the tariffs, 24% of respondents have scrapped plans to make a major purchase like a home, while another 32% are putting these plans on hold.
There are early signs of this playing out. Existing-home sales in March sustained a monthly drop of 5.9%, landing at an annualized pace that’s below that of 2024 — one of the most dismal years for the housing market in recent memory.
Florida is also dealing with the issue of skyrocketing home insurance costs. According to data from Cotality, property insurance in the Sunshine State has risen 60% since 2019. Seven major insurers have withdrawn from Florida altogether, and almost one-quarter of homeowners are on the state-backed insurance program.
It will likely be into the summer before we know the full impact of the trade war on the housing market. There are reasons to believe things are better than the top-line data suggests, but the uncertainty isn’t good news to Florida housing markets that could use a boost.
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