“Despite growing concerns about economic uncertainty, job growth was robust across many sectors last month,” Lisa Sturtevant, the chief economist at Bright MLS, said in a statement.
However, Sturtevant noted that these numbers came in ahead of the Trump administration’s April 2 tariff announcement and only partially reflect all of the layoffs within the federal government.
In total, the federal government lost 4,000 jobs in March, according to the report. This comes after a loss of 11,000 jobs in February.
Sturtevant thinks these numbers are far lower than what is actually happening.
“According to data collected by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, a private employment and human resources firm, DOGE layoffs amounted to more than 216,000 in March,” she said. “The BLS includes federal government workers on paid leave or receiving severance as employed workers in its report.”
The majority of the job gains in March occurred in health care (+54,000 jobs), in social assistance (+24,000 jobs), and in transportation and warehousing (+23,000 jobs). The Bureau also reported an employment increase in retail trade (+24,000 jobs), which it partially attributes to worked returning from a strike.
The construction sector added 13,000 jobs in March, with 3,100 coming from residential building construction. Despite this gain, the residential sector lost 12,900 specialty trade contractors. This was offset by a 19,300-job gain for nonresidential specialty trade contractors.
The real estate and rental and leasing segment gained 2,500 jobs in March, with 2,100 of those jobs coming from real estate.
While job growth is still occurring, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s senior vice president and chief economist Mike Fratantoni noted that in February there was a sharper increase in the U-6 measure of underemployment.
“That metric remained elevated at 7.9% in March,” Fratantoni said in a statement. “This increase signals that many who have lost jobs are having difficulties regaining full employment again but are able to get part-time or other work.”
Looking ahead, economists expect job growth to cool off this spring thanks to the recently announced tariffs and volatile stock market. Despite this anticipated cool down, Fratantoni believes the Federal Reserve will remain cautious when it comes to interest rate cuts.
“The Federal Reserve, in data-dependent mode, is likely to remain cautious with respect to any rate cuts so long as inflation is above target, and the job market data continues to come in strong,” he said.
Although Fratantoni does not expect any drastic changes on the part of the Fed, mortgage rates hit their lowest level so far this year on Thursday on the heels of the Trump administration’s tariff announcement. This may incentivize some prospective homebuyers to come off the sidelines, but economists are not so sure.
“Spring is also typically when the housing market heats up, but growing weakness in the labor market, drops in the stock market, and general ongoing economic uncertainty are likely going to lead to a slower-than-expected spring housing market,” Sturtevant said. “The tariff announcements sent mortgage rates lower but those lower rates may be cold comfort to prospective buyers who are increasingly worried about job security and inflation.”
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